At Rowe Beef, we believe in keeping our valued customers informed about the latest developments in the meat and dairy industry. The recent release of the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has provided crucial insights into the 2023-2024 forecasts for red meat, poultry, and dairy production. In this blog post, we break down the key takeaways from the report and what it means for consumers and our industry.
Red Meat Production:
The USDA’s latest report has adjusted its forecast for 2023 red meat production, including beef and pork. Beef production is now projected at 28.96 billion pounds, with lower steer and heifer slaughter and lighter dressed weights contributing to the reduction. Pork production, on the other hand, is expected to reach 27.26 billion pounds, reflecting lighter dressed weights despite a slight increase in slaughter.
The report also addresses poultry production, with broiler production for 2023 anticipated to be 46.98 billion pounds, lowered due to lower expected egg sets and hatchability rates. In contrast, turkey production saw an increase to 5.58 billion pounds based on data from slaughter and hatcheries. Egg production for 2023 is projected at 9.24 billion dozen eggs, reflecting lower productivity in laying flocks and slower additions of pullets.
Looking Ahead to 2024:
The USDA has revised its 2024 projections, with red meat and poultry production forecasted at 106.53 billion pounds. This adjustment is attributed to higher beef and turkey production, which compensates for lower broiler production. Beef production for 2024 is expected to reach 25.17 billion pounds, driven by anticipated placements in late 2023 and early 2024, as well as increased cow slaughter in early 2024. Pork production remains unchanged at 27.34 billion pounds.
The USDA’s report also provides price forecasts for various meat and dairy products. Cattle prices for 2023 and 2024 have been raised to $178.50/cwt. and $186.00/cwt., respectively, due to sustained demand from packers. Hog prices for 2023 have also seen an increase to $62.20/cwt., driven by current price strength. Broiler prices for 2023 and 2024 have been adjusted to $1.22/lb. and $1.21/lb., respectively, while turkey prices have been lowered to $1.52/lb. and $1.54/lb. Expectations of continued weak demand influenced these changes. Egg prices remain steady at $1.82/doz. for 2023 and $1.44/doz. for 2024.
The report also covers dairy production, with forecasts raised for both 2023 and 2024. Milk production is expected to reach 227.90 billion pounds and 230.5 billion pounds, respectively. This adjustment is based on data from the July 1 dairy cow inventory and heifer retention, as well as average cow inventory data. Price forecasts for butter, cheese, non-fat dry milk (NDM), whey, Class III, and Class IV have all been revised to reflect market conditions.
Staying informed about industry forecasts and market trends is essential for everyone in the meat and dairy sector, from producers to consumers. The USDA’s latest report offers valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in 2023 and 2024. At Rowe Beef, we are committed to providing high-quality meat products to our customers, and we’ll continue to monitor these developments closely to ensure we meet your needs and expectations. Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate this ever-evolving landscape together.